This is a quick summary I compiled in April 2019, mostly from the SIPRO booklets. They’re a must-read to get a solid handle on what it means to do a conjunctural analysis.

Steps in the process

1. Identify how you’re thinking of things and what potential preconceptions are
2. Delimitation – what is and isn’t included in the conjunctural analysis?
3. Investigate the correlation of forces
4. Conclusions – what are the major things the investigation taught you?
5. Based on these conclusions regarding the current moment, where are things headed?
6. Evaluation of the process, so we can do it better next time
7. Identify how you’re thinking of things and what potential preconceptions are

Before beginning your conjunctural analysis, you need to explicitly shape your approach. We all have preferences when it comes to making sense of the world (theory), ways we differentiate between quality information and junk (epistemology), and ways of collecting information (methodology). Instead of just doing what you’ve always done or everyone doing their own thing, we need to make explicit decisions about this – to form hypotheses – and hold each other accountable to them throughout the process. Otherwise it goes off the rails and you end up with no idea what you learned or what you should change to learn better.

Here are some things to consider. You could potentially debate any one of these questions for years, so remember that you just need quick-and-dirty, provisional agreements/hypotheses for now and you’ll revisit them during the evaluation.

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